scenario based planning

Summary of Scenario C: Walled CIty

Tradition!

Closed sources of learning & managed or slow change

Taking advantage of this, businesses are able to consolidate their gains and increase their competitive position over rivals through partnerships with universities to provide research and trained employees.  At the other end of the spectrum, as the pace of change slows, smaller entities—businesses, schools and groups of all stripes—are able to catch up and participate in a variety of activities.  Innovation and searching for the “next big thing” give way to a comfortable sense of consistency and continuity.  Some large institutions even offer coaching programs for smaller organizations that further homogenize structures and practice.

With the costs of adopting to rapid change no longer a constant business cost, institutions and individuals can make other strategic investments, some to bolster their status (either as gatekeepers for institutions, or as individuals), others to extend their mission or interests, or even to consolidate with other institutions to extend their reach and zone of control.

Slow change also means a slower economy, however, with fewer opportunities for the ambitious.  Tight restrictions and control on social, economic, and technological advances reinforce and extend social, cultural and political ossification.

Summary of Scenario D: Drowning in Riches

Open sources of learning & managed or slow change

The system has failed, but nothing arrived to replace it.  Now students can’t turn to any single source to complete their education.  Institutions remain stuck in a model that no longer meets the needs of their students or the workplace. Mimicking the symptoms of depression, they turn inward, willing only to reflect on their lost stature, which further deteriorates their motivation for change.  This situation has frustrated innovation and experimentation in business as well.  Information is free, thanks to an explosion in open source research and the dizzying array of websites, tutoring programs, videos, and tools touting the ability to teach everything from theoretical physics to flax spinning. 

In this environment, institutions have lost control of the marketplace and now everything from knowledge and research to essential skills has to be cobbled together from a variety of sources, some online, some proprietary, some open source.  Quality and validity is a major challenge, and consistency of work products is highly variable.  With so much information coming from so many sources, just making sense of it all is a major endeavor, for which their is energy or investment. 

Perhaps more importantly, despite all of this information, floundering public and private institutions don’t have the capability any longer to fund or catalyze the transformation of data into value. Inefficient processes slow down innovation and change even further, which makes disseminating advances difficult even for the most innovative individuals and organizations.

Those who curate, manage, sort and repackage information find economic security.  Unfortunately, the role of cicerone for this galaxy of diffuse knowledge is filled by a multitude of groups, and organizations, institutions, businesses and governments have to pay premiums to capture and collect the information that they need just to remain functional.  Students, left largely on their own, cast wide nets and present themselves to employers as astute consumers of the vast wealth of information that is available.

Summary of Scenario B: To Each Their Own

The Only Port

Closed sources of learning & rapid change

Technological and social changes are managed by gatekeepers—governments, schools, large public and private institutions. 

Higher education uses its size, scope and position to block out external partners from trespassing on its patents, proprietary practices, and intellectual property.  Protecting the investment on research and development means does not imply a slow transfer of technology, but rather a new competitive model where high education institutions share less among one another as they seek to convert their intellectual property into economic value. Educators, researchers in particular, who are now seen as intrapreneurs, take models of academic-economic cooperation to new heights.

Credentials become essential passports to opportunity. The economic gap between those with credentials and those without widens.  Not all credentials are created equal—the value of the degree or diploma depends upon the institution that issued it, in the context of the institution that is evaluating it. 

Institutions with access to technological innovation take the opportunity their prestige affords them to “colonize” less enriched institutions, establishing “branches” that trade on the reputation of their larger entity and provide both cash and a steady flow of new talent into the more selective home academy.

The pace of change is such that other sectors find it hard to keep up, save those few institutions with the resources, scale and the wherewithal to commit to continuous change and innovation.  Those who can adopt emerging technologies grow larger, always at the risk that they could become too large but they become increasingly dysfunctional as management practice often fails to find their right balance in the chaotic technical environment.  To guard against this, institutions apply technology to compartmentalize practice while keeping technical information unrestrained least they miss a serendipitous opportunity to transform discovery into profit.

Businesses and institutions become simultaneously larger and more isolated. Consistent standards for technology, information, data (which is in many ways the currency of the day) and intellectual property laws, prove harder to enforce as each large entity moves further down the path of its own proprietary approach.

Summary of Scenario A: Find Your Own Path

Open sources learning & rapid change

Everyone is an expert, but no one is a gatekeeper. 

Institutional prestige has been devalued.  Value now resides in the ability to meet the needs of the individual, fueled by the collective “wisdom” of the crowd.  The power of a degree is diminished as workplaces shift to microdegrees and endorsements that signal the ability to perform specific tasks, or the mastery of a specific, narrow knowledge set. 

Validity of both skill and information is a function of its market share; core research functions not oriented toward the marketplace are largely obsolete—still churning out insight to declining and increasingly disinterested sponsors.

Information is widely available, but authority is in the eye of the beholder. 

The public sector’s role in general, and education in particular, is greatly diminished as better funded, more nimble, less regulated private entities provide services formerly offered by the state. 

Invention and reinvention are rampant. The consumer is fickle and what is in vogue finds itself easily discarded with the next “trend.” This goes as much for governance models as it does for consumer goods. Liberal democracy finds itself in defensive mode among a sea of local models that all seem to sort of work, from beneficent autocracies to social network enabled virtual communes. 

Traditional institutions of higher education struggle to keep up with the pace of change and the diversifying nature of information.  Education has shifted from institutionally focused degrees to build-your-own degrees from online sources. Those degrees, however, take too long, don’t align with economic need and have rapidly lost their prestige.  External validators take the place of accredited institutions in guaranteeing quality and skills.  In many cases, degrees have been replaced entirely by endorsements from previous work, or from competencies certified by groups of similarly skilled individuals.

Scenario D: Drowning in Riches

Open sources of learning & managed or slow change

The system has failed, but nothing arrived to replace it.  Now students can’t turn to any single source to complete their education.  Institutions remain stuck in a model that no longer meets the needs of their students or the workplace. Mimicking the symptoms of depression, they turn inward, willing only to reflect on their lost stature, which further deteriorates their motivation for change.  This situation has frustrated innovation and experimentation in business as well.  Information is free, thanks to an explosion in open source research and the dizzying array of websites, tutoring programs, videos, and tools touting the ability to teach everything from theoretical physics to flax spinning. 

In this environment, institutions have lost control of the marketplace and now everything from knowledge and research to essential skills has to be cobbled together from a variety of sources, some online, some proprietary, some open source.  Quality and validity is a major challenge, and consistency of work products is highly variable.  With so much information coming from so many sources, just making sense of it all is a major endeavor, for which their is energy or investment. 

Perhaps more importantly, despite all of this information, floundering public and private institutions don’t have the capability any longer to fund or catalyze the transformation of data into value. Inefficient processes slow down innovation and change even further, which makes disseminating advances difficult even for the most innovative individuals and organizations.

Those who curate, manage, sort and repackage information find economic security.  Unfortunately, the role of cicerone for this galaxy of diffuse knowledge is filled by a multitude of groups, and organizations, institutions, businesses and governments have to pay premiums to capture and collect the information that they need just to remain functional.  Students, left largely on their own, cast wide nets and present themselves to employers as astute consumers of the vast wealth of information that is available.

Scenario C: Walled CIty

Tradition!

Closed sources of learning & managed or slow change

Taking advantage of this, businesses are able to consolidate their gains and increase their competitive position over rivals through partnerships with universities to provide research and trained employees.  At the other end of the spectrum, as the pace of change slows, smaller entities—businesses, schools and groups of all stripes—are able to catch up and participate in a variety of activities.  Innovation and searching for the “next big thing” give way to a comfortable sense of consistency and continuity.  Some large institutions even offer coaching programs for smaller organizations that further homogenize structures and practice.

With the costs of adopting to rapid change no longer a constant business cost, institutions and individuals can make other strategic investments, some to bolster their status (either as gatekeepers for institutions, or as individuals), others to extend their mission or interests, or even to consolidate with other institutions to extend their reach and zone of control.

Slow change also means a slower economy, however, with fewer opportunities for the ambitious.  Tight restrictions and control on social, economic, and technological advances reinforce and extend social, cultural and political ossification.

Scenario B: To Each Their Own

The Only Port

Closed sources of learning & rapid change

Technological and social changes are managed by gatekeepers—governments, schools, large public and private institutions. 

Higher education uses its size, scope and position to block out external partners from trespassing on its patents, proprietary practices, and intellectual property.  Protecting the investment on research and development means does not imply a slow transfer of technology, but rather a new competitive model where high education institutions share less among one another as they seek to convert their intellectual property into economic value. Educators, researchers in particular, who are now seen as intrapreneurs, take models of academic-economic cooperation to new heights.

Credentials become essential passports to opportunity. The economic gap between those with credentials and those without widens.  Not all credentials are created equal—the value of the degree or diploma depends upon the institution that issued it, in the context of the institution that is evaluating it. 

Institutions with access to technological innovation take the opportunity their prestige affords them to “colonize” less enriched institutions, establishing “branches” that trade on the reputation of their larger entity and provide both cash and a steady flow of new talent into the more selective home academy.

The pace of change is such that other sectors find it hard to keep up, save those few institutions with the resources, scale and the wherewithal to commit to continuous change and innovation.  Those who can adopt emerging technologies grow larger, always at the risk that they could become too large but they become increasingly dysfunctional as management practice often fails to find their right balance in the chaotic technical environment.  To guard against this, institutions apply technology to compartmentalize practice while keeping technical information unrestrained least they miss a serendipitous opportunity to transform discovery into profit.

Businesses and institutions become simultaneously larger and more isolated. Consistent standards for technology, information, data (which is in many ways the currency of the day) and intellectual property laws, prove harder to enforce as each large entity moves further down the path of its own proprietary approach.

Scenario A: Find Your Own Path

Open sources learning & rapid change

Everyone is an expert, but no one is a gatekeeper. 

Institutional prestige has been devalued.  Value now resides in the ability to meet the needs of the individual, fueled by the collective “wisdom” of the crowd.  The power of a degree is diminished as workplaces shift to microdegrees and endorsements that signal the ability to perform specific tasks, or the mastery of a specific, narrow knowledge set. 

Validity of both skill and information is a function of its market share; core research functions not oriented toward the marketplace are largely obsolete—still churning out insight to declining and increasingly disinterested sponsors.

Information is widely available, but authority is in the eye of the beholder. 

The public sector’s role in general, and education in particular, is greatly diminished as better funded, more nimble, less regulated private entities provide services formerly offered by the state. 

Invention and reinvention are rampant. The consumer is fickle and what is in vogue finds itself easily discarded with the next “trend.” This goes as much for governance models as it does for consumer goods. Liberal democracy finds itself in defensive mode among a sea of local models that all seem to sort of work, from beneficent autocracies to social network enabled virtual communes. 

Traditional institutions of higher education struggle to keep up with the pace of change and the diversifying nature of information.  Education has shifted from institutionally focused degrees to build-your-own degrees from online sources. Those degrees, however, take too long, don’t align with economic need and have rapidly lost their prestige.  External validators take the place of accredited institutions in guaranteeing quality and skills.  In many cases, degrees have been replaced entirely by endorsements from previous work, or from competencies certified by groups of similarly skilled individuals.

Exploring The Beyond

ITB Week One, Module two

ITB

Overview

Inventing the Beyond | Module 1, Week 2

Pages

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